The AI 2027 Tournament on Metaculus poses 16 questions about the near term future of AI. They are derived from the AI 2027 scenario and cover predictions about technological, economical, political and societal developments. I made predictions for 6 of the questions and want to share my reasoning. I believe there is a virtue in making public predictions, open my reasoning up to criticism and contribute to the discourse.
The development of AGI could be the most important event of our lifetimes. Ensuring that AI is developed and deployed safely could be the most impactful thing many of us can work on. However, the development of Frontier AI systems is happening in only a handful of companies. This leaves the rest of us to wonder: How can we influence Frontier AI Companies?
The Luddites were a social movement of English textile workers in the 19th century, famous for smashing the machines that were replacing their jobs. The term Luddite is now used to describe opponents of new technologies (often in a derogatory way). However, I believe many people using the term misunderstand what the Luddites did and wanted. Indeed, the Luddites and their ultimate failure can teach a modern AI-labour movement valuable lessons.
The development of AGI could be the most important event of our lifetimes. Ensuring that AI is developed and deployed safely could be the most impactful thing many of us can work on. However, the development of Frontier AI systems is happening in only a handful of companies. This leaves the rest of us to wonder: How can we influence Frontier AI Companies?
You might think a horrible catastrophe is imminent due to climate change, plummeting birth rates, democratic backsliding or whatever your doom-of-choice is. In the face of such catastrophes it might seem unimportant, distracting or downright offensive to consider what beautiful futures might look like. However, I believe that thinking about the end goal is essential for steering towards positive outcomes.
The development of AGI could be the most important event of our lifetimes. Ensuring that AI is developed and deployed safely could be the most impactful thing many of us can work on. However, the development of Frontier AI systems is happening in only a handful of companies. This leaves the rest of us to wonder: How can we influence Frontier AI Companies?
The AI 2027 Tournament on Metaculus poses 16 questions about the near term future of AI. They are derived from the AI 2027 scenario and cover predictions about technological, economical, political and societal developments. I made predictions for 6 of the questions and want to share my reasoning. I believe there is a virtue in making public predictions, open my reasoning up to criticism and contribute to the discourse.
This post summarizes the taxonomy, challenges, and opportunities from a survey paper on Representation Engineering that I’ve written with Sahar Abdelnabi, David Krueger, and Mario Fritz. Cross posted from the AI Alignment Forum
The Luddites were a social movement of English textile workers in the 19th century, famous for smashing the machines that were replacing their jobs. The term Luddite is now used to describe opponents of new technologies (often in a derogatory way). However, I believe many people using the term misunderstand what the Luddites did and wanted. Indeed, the Luddites and their ultimate failure can teach a modern AI-labour movement valuable lessons.
This post summarizes the taxonomy, challenges, and opportunities from a survey paper on Representation Engineering that I’ve written with Sahar Abdelnabi, David Krueger, and Mario Fritz. Cross posted from the AI Alignment Forum
This post summarizes the taxonomy, challenges, and opportunities from a survey paper on Representation Engineering that I’ve written with Sahar Abdelnabi, David Krueger, and Mario Fritz. Cross posted from the AI Alignment Forum
The AI 2027 Tournament on Metaculus poses 16 questions about the near term future of AI. They are derived from the AI 2027 scenario and cover predictions about technological, economical, political and societal developments. I made predictions for 6 of the questions and want to share my reasoning. I believe there is a virtue in making public predictions, open my reasoning up to criticism and contribute to the discourse.
The sleep pod opens with a soft hiss. Five hours—that’s all I need anymore. The pod regulated everything through the night: temperature shifting through optimal sleep cycles, gentle massages during deep sleep, binaural tones guiding my brain through REM. I step out feeling completely rested.
You might think a horrible catastrophe is imminent due to climate change, plummeting birth rates, democratic backsliding or whatever your doom-of-choice is. In the face of such catastrophes it might seem unimportant, distracting or downright offensive to consider what beautiful futures might look like. However, I believe that thinking about the end goal is essential for steering towards positive outcomes.
The sleep pod opens with a soft hiss. Five hours—that’s all I need anymore. The pod regulated everything through the night: temperature shifting through optimal sleep cycles, gentle massages during deep sleep, binaural tones guiding my brain through REM. I step out feeling completely rested.
You might think a horrible catastrophe is imminent due to climate change, plummeting birth rates, democratic backsliding or whatever your doom-of-choice is. In the face of such catastrophes it might seem unimportant, distracting or downright offensive to consider what beautiful futures might look like. However, I believe that thinking about the end goal is essential for steering towards positive outcomes.